Using Climate Prediction Models to Map the Future Range of the Nootka Cypress

The purpose of project 5 was to create a model in order to estimate land suitability changes for the Nootka Cypress between two time periods: 1961-1990, and the 2080s. To create the estimated climate envelopes, data was used for six climate variables which affect the tree's growth: mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, the number of frost-free days, climate moisture index, the difference between the warmest and coldest months, and precipitation as snow. For the 2080s data, we chose a high-emissions scenario. The six variables for the 20th century were used to determine the range of values that the cypress best grows in, based on the 5th and 95th percentiles, where 90% of the climate variables fall within the species' range. Next, with the ranges calculated, the model is run a second time with the predicted climate variables. Both of these climate "envelopes" are then mapped and the change in land suitability between the time periods is calculated. As climate change continues to threaten Earth's biodiversity, climate suitability models can be an important tool in predicting the loss in habitat for different species. This project was the final project for GIS III, and was a group effort between myself and four other students. Our entire process for this project was finalized in a report. Shown below is the layout that I made, displaying the estimated climate envelope for the Nootka Cypress between 1961 and 1990. This project was also presented at WWU's Scholar Week in May 2024, where it won an award.